Eagle Ford Reaches One Billion Barrels of Crude

December 9, 2014 Elizabeth Alford

Amidst falling crude prices and dire predictions about the future of the industry, Wood Mackenzie announced that Eagle Ford reached an impressive milestone in November as production topped one billion barrels. Over the past two years, production in the Eagle Ford play has exploded and elevated the area as a major force in the world energy market.

“It puts the Eagle Ford in elite company on the world scale. It makes it even more clear that this is a world-class play.”

— Analyst, Cody Rice

The boom in shale production from Eagle Ford began in 2008 as horizontal drilling was introduced in La Salle County and now encompasses a 30 county area across South Texas. The national impact of Eagle Ford shale cannot be overstated, and it is estimated that 16% of total U.S. oil is now coming from the play. Analysts predict that production will remain high through 2015. Energy research consultancy IHS estimates U.S. shale production will grow by 700,000 b/d at an average price of $77 per barrel in 2015.

In additional to Eagle Ford’s contribution to the global market, it is likely that the greatest benefit from this historic drilling boom is being experienced by local Texas communities. Billions of investment dollars are bringing jobs and economic growth to many small Texas towns and revitalizing formerly depressed areas.

Eagle Ford Shale Rig Count Decreases by Seven to 261

December 8, 2014 Kirk Eggleston

The Eagle Ford Shale rig count stayed flat at 261 rigs running across our coverage area by the end of last week.

In recent Eagle Ford news, Texas is the largest producer of shale natural gas, according to a report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). From 2007 to 2013, shale gas production in Texas increased from 3 bcf/d to 11 bcf/d, with the majority of the shale gas produced coming from the Barnett, Eagle Ford, and Haynesville Shale formations.

The U.S. rig count decreased by 3 to 1,920 rigs running by the end of last week. A total of 344 rigs were targeting natural gas (flat from the previous week) and 1,575 were targeting oil in the U.S. (three less than the previous week). The remainder were drilling service wells (e.g. disposal wells, injection wells, etc.). 896 or ~48% of rigs active in the U.S. were running in Texas.

Baker Hughes rig count is quoted here. Baker Hughes also releases its own Eagle Ford Rig Count that covers the 14 core counties (206 rigs). The rig count published on EagleFordShale.com includes a 30 county area impacted by Eagle Ford development. A full list of the counties included can be found in the table near the bottom of this article.

Eagle Ford Oil & Gas Rigs

The natural gas rig increased by two to 18 rigs running by the end of last week. Average rig counts for natural gas production in 2012 were around 80 and then dropped to around 40 in 2013. Natural gas prices fell by ~$.30 from the previous week at $3.70/mmbtu on Friday afternoon.

The oil rig count decreased by nine to 243 rigs running by the end of last week. WTI oil prices increased by ~$3.00 from the previous week, trading at $64.33/bbl on Monday morning. Eagle Ford light crude traded at $62.65/bbl on December 5th.

A total of 245 rigs are drilling horizontal wells, six rigs are drilling directional wells, and 10 rigs are drilling vertical wells. Karnes, Dimmit, and DeWitt each have at minimum 27 rigs running. Dimmit County has the highest rig count this week at 35. See the full list below in the Eagle Ford Shale Drilling by County below

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Eagle Ford Shale Drilling by County

What is the Rig Count?

The Eagle Ford Shale Rig Count is an index of the total number of oil & gas drilling rigs running across a 30 county area in South Texas. The South Texas rigs referred to in this article are for ALL drilling reported by Baker Hughes and not solely wells targeting the Eagle Ford formation. All land rigs and onshore rig data shown here are based upon industry estimates provided by the Baker Hughes Rig Count.

OPEC Not Likely to Stop Shale Boom

December 5, 2014 Kirk Eggleston

OPEC's decision last week to not cut production was a direct assault on U.S. shale production, but its not likely to stop the U.S. shale boom. Across the board, U.S. shale production growth will slow at lower prices in 2015, but is still expected to remain high. Energy research consultancy IHS estimates U.S. shale production will grow by 700,000 b/d at an average price of $77 per barrel in 2015. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts WTI crude oil prices will average $78 per barrel in 2015.

The shale oil boom has been made possible by advancements in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, putting the U.S. in a prominent position on the world stage once again for crude oil production.

The Eagle Ford Shale alone accounts for more than 1.5-million barrels of crude oil per day, and Texas and North Dakota, which encompasses the most active areas of the Bakken Shale, currently make up almost half of the nation’s crude oil supply.

In the Middle East, production costs are less than $30 per barrel on average, according to the Norwegian firm Rystad Energy. OPEC is betting as prices fall, higher relative costs for U.S. shale production, will put the brakes on growth. But in certain "sweet spot" areas for drilling in the Eagle Ford and Bakken Shale in North Dakota, new wells can be drilled profitably, even if crude falls to $25 per barrel, according to ITG Investment Research Inc., cited in a recent Bloomberg article.

Ultimately, nobody has a crystal ball to predict futures prices for crude oil, but with WTI now below $70, some operators in the Eagle Ford may consider scaling back their drilling programs in certain areas in 2015, and wait to see what will happen with crude oil prices.

What Lower Oil Prices Mean for Texas and Eagle Ford

December 3, 2014 Kirk Eggleston

With oil now below $70 per barrel, oil industry workers in Texas should anticipate a decline in exploration and drilling in certain areas and hence a slowdown in employment. Oil exploration and production accounts for about 10% of the Texas economy. At lower sustained oil prices, some operators will scale back their drilling programs in development areas across the state, which will in effect reduce spending in the oil sector, and have an impact on industries connected to the oil patch (i.e. steel and transportation).

Currently, the vast majority of Eagle Ford operators do not appear to be changing course next quarter, but last month, at least one Eagle Ford player, Clayton Williams, indicated it's considering scaling back its drilling program in 2015 due to the "pullback" in oil prices.

The good news is there are many areas in the Eagle Ford Shale where drilling and exploration are profitable well below the current benchmark price (West Texas Intermediate or WTI) of ~$67.00 per barrel.

Analysts predict the Karnes Trough, one of the best areas of the play, would be profitable, even if oil prices fell into the $40s range. In certain other liquids-rich areas of the play, breakeven oil prices are between $50 – $60 per barrel.

But there is a large variance in the well qualities across the Eagle Ford, with breakeven prices in several places above the current price of WTI.

Why the Price of Oil is Falling

Since June of this year, oil prices have been falling for a variety of reasons. The shale oil boom, for instance, has increased the supply of oil worldwide, while demand has gone down in China, the world’s second largest oil consumer. But the main reason oil prices are dropping can be traced back to OPEC, which announced last week it would not cut its oil production to shore up oil prices.

EIA: Texas is Largest Producer of Shale Natural Gas

December 2, 2014 Kirk Eggleston

Texas is the largest producer of shale natural gas, according to a report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). From 2007 to 2013, shale gas production in Texas increased from 3 bcf/d to 11 bcf/d, with the majority of the shale gas produced coming from the Barnett, Eagle Ford, and Haynesville Shale formations.

In 2013, total natural gas gross withdrawals* in the U.S. hit 82 bcf/d, with shale gas wells becoming the largest source of natural gas production. According to the Natural Gas Annual, gross withdrawals from shale gas wells surpassed production from non-shale gas wells after volumes increased from 5 Bcf/d in 2007 to 33 Bcf/d in 2013, representing 40% of total natural gas production.

Natural gas prices have averaged ~$2.00 - ~$4.00 per mmbtu since 2011, which is a far cry from peak prices of nearly $13.00 per mmbtu during the Summer of 2008. New technology is enabling producers to shift focus to resources that are easier to reach and at lower costs, which is reflective of the lower commodity prices.

In 2007, shale well gas comprised only 8% of total U.S. production levels. The distribution across the nation since then, however, has changed significantly in areas such as Texas, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, and Arkansas. These states accounted for 79% of shale gas production in the U.S., or about 26 bcf/d.

Natural gas gross withdrawals - a measure of full well stream production including all natural gas liquids and non-hydrocarbon gases after oil, light liquid hydrocarbons, and water have been removed from the product.