Chesapeake's Eagle Ford VPP Plans Could Mean $1 Billion

Chesapeake Energy announced plans to sell a volumetric production payment (VPP) related to its Eagle Ford Shale assets earlier in the year. The plans were outlined with other assets sales to help fill a funding gap created by decade low natural gas prices. Since the initial announcement, the company has delayed plans to sell the VPP in the Eagle Ford. I've seen two reasons given in the press. The reason I believe to be accurate is that Eagle Ford assets were retained to hold output and cash flow at levels required by debt covenants. With favorable oil prices and production additions in the tens of thousands of barrels per day in 2012, it stands to reason the Eagle Ford is becoming a significant contributor to the company's bottom line.

The other reason mentioned by the press is oil prices have fallen $15 over the past several weeks. While WTI oil prices have fallen below $90 per barrel as of this morning (May 30, 2012), Eagle Ford crude and condensate is trading at a premium to the aforementioned benchmark. Oil, from the Eagle Ford, trades at a premium to WTI and is more comparable to Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) crude.  LLS prices closed at an almost $11 premium to WTI yesterday. I'm not downplaying the $15 move in WTI, but prices in South Texas are holding at a higher level near $100 per barrel.

My expectation is that Chesapeake will close on an Eagle Ford VPP sometime in 2013.

A VPP will allow Chesapeake to recover some of its capital investment by selling future production at an earlier time. VPP’s usually have a prescribed time period and a prescribed volume. Chesapeake will deliver the product for the buyer until the conditions of the agreement are met. When the obligations are met, existing production will revert back to Chesapeake.

Chesapeake Shifts One-Third of Capital to the Eagle Ford - Production Hits 75,000 boe/d

Chesapeake Energy's Eagle Ford assets will receive 30% of the company's capital budget in 2012 and 40% in 2013. The company is shifting capital from natural gas developments to oil in areas like the Eagle Ford and the Utica. Low natural gas prices are driving the shift to oil for many operators. Natural gas focused companies like Chesapeake are literally evolving before our eyes. The company grew crude oil production in the Eagle Ford from 25,000 b/d at the end of the year to over 55,000 b/d at the end of April. Bringing 30,000 b/d of crude onto the market in just a few short months is no small feat.

2012 and 2013 are proving to be very important years for the company's Eagle Ford assets. CHK is building an oil production base that will support development for years to come.

The company also plans on raising capital in the next few months by selling a volumetric production payment (VPP) related to the Eagle Ford. A VPP allows Chesapeake to recover some of its capital investment by selling future production today. VPP's usually have a prescribed time period and a prescribed volume. When those two obligations are met, existing production will revert back to Chesapeake.

Also, expect the company to slow down in terms of drilling activity in the next few months. Current plans only call for an average of 30 rigs running in 2012. As of last week, the company had 35 active, so they'll need to drop 7-10 rigs in the last half of the year to meet their current guidance.

Read additional quarterly commentary at our Chesapeake Eagle Ford page.